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近日，我院2022级硕博连读生刘潇璐与导师司伟教授合作撰写的论文 “Can Reducing Agricultural Trade Costs Foster the Transformation of the Agrifood System? Evidence from China”在China Economic Review发表。中国农业大学经济管理学院教授、博士生导师，AGFEP研究员张玉梅教授为论文设计和修改提供宝贵意见。该论文探讨了农产品贸易成本降低对中国农业食物系统的影响，能够在一定程度上支持探索新发展格局下改善中国居民膳食状况、促进农食系统转型的方向与路径问题，对于更好地满足人民群众日益多元化的食物消费需求、促进农食系统可持续发展具有重要现实意义。
China Economic Review 是国际知名经济学期刊，中国科学院经济学一区，最新影响因子为5.2。本研究得到了教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项（No. 2024JZDZ059）和国家大豆产业技术体系（No. CARS-04-10B）的资助。
英文摘要
Trade costs play a crucial role in influencing food expenditure and residents' food choices, which in turn affects their dietary quality. In this paper, the China CGE model was integrated with household survey data to further examine the impact of agricultural trade costs reduction on the agrifood system, capturing variations across food categories and household groups. Our findings indicate that, reducing domestic agricultural trade costs lowers food prices, expands food consumption and production, and improves residents’ dietary quality, especially for low-income groups. When domestic agricultural trade costs decrease by 10% annually from 2025 to 2030, fruit, milk, and aquatic product prices are projected to drop by 15.33%, 12.88%, and 10.39%, respectively. This increase in the consumption of higher-value, currently under-consumed foods is anticipated to promote a more balanced diet, improving dietary quality for 36.78% of rural residents and 39.07% of urban residents. Consumption changes will also affect agricultural production and the macro-economy through inter-sectoral linkages. The reduction in domestic agricultural trade costs leads to increased production levels and stimulates growth in both agriculture and the agrifood system GDP. Future efforts should focus on enhancing cold chain logistics for fresh produce, standardizing the Green Channel policy, and strengthening the sustainability of China’s agrifood system.
文章概要
目前中国居民仍然面临膳食结构不合理、营养不均衡的问题，贸易在实现食物安全和营养目标方面发挥着关键作用。本文通过将中国CGE模型与微观层面城乡居民调查数据相结合，将农产品贸易成本与居民的膳食健康问题联系起来，不仅支持探究贸易成本对农业生产和宏观经济的影响，还有助于挖掘微观层面的因素，特别是对居民食物消费结构和膳食质量的影响。研究结果表明，降低国内农产品贸易成本不仅有助于降低食品价格、扩大食品消费和农业生产规模，还显著改善了城乡居民的膳食质量，尤其对低收入群体效果更加明显。当国内农产品贸易成本自2025年开始，以每年10%的速度下降时，预计到2030年，水果、牛奶和水产品价格将分别下降15.33%、12.88%和10.39%，这些当前中国居民消费不足、价值又较高的食物消费量的增加，将为中国居民带来更均衡的营养摄入，2030年中国农村和城镇居民的膳食质量预计将分别提高36.78%和39.07%。居民消费的变化也将通过模型中部门间的联系与传导对农业生产和宏观经济产生影响。结果显示，国内农产品贸易成本的降低将促进农业生产，并带来农业和农食系统GDP的增长。未来应重点完善生鲜农产品的冷链物流体系，进一步规范绿色通道政策，促进中国农业食物系统的可持续发展。
引用来源：Liu, X., Zhang, Y., Lan, X., & Si, W. (2025). Can reducing agricultural trade costs foster the transformation of the agrifood system? Evidence from China. China Economic Review, 102406.